Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 1.815436 1.894264 1.977231 2.071533 2.176344 2.289984 2.423515
2025-11-16 1.720051 1.821707 1.932421 2.063209 2.215225 2.388646 2.605029
2025-11-23 1.651288 1.766856 1.895759 2.052332 2.240535 2.464006 2.757117
2025-11-30 1.609515 1.737072 1.882271 2.063001 2.286951 2.563081 2.943621
2025-12-07 1.544059 1.675097 1.826114 2.016952 2.258045 2.562747 2.997095
2025-12-14 1.504186 1.640591 1.799825 2.004286 2.268022 2.610554 3.118078
2025-12-21 1.465419 1.605255 1.770215 1.984852 2.266623 2.641320 3.216109
2025-12-28 1.450134 1.597141 1.772863 2.005401 2.317741 2.746420 3.436594
2026-01-04 1.441277 1.596085 1.783628 2.036189 2.383742 2.877503 3.717873
2026-01-11 1.417296 1.575221 1.768260 2.031319 2.399425 2.935367 3.886040
2026-01-18 1.398986 1.560629 1.760035 2.035133 2.426948 3.012752 4.101533
2026-01-25 1.365199 1.525501 1.724083 1.999602 2.395266 2.994334 4.133610
2026-02-01 1.342630 1.504620 1.706748 1.989962 2.402605 3.041611 4.309290
2026-02-08 1.322460 1.486116 1.691744 1.982624 2.412513 3.093457 4.505424
2026-02-15 1.302505 1.467257 1.675537 1.972692 2.417540 3.137049 4.693834
2026-02-22 1.291497 1.459483 1.673569 1.982471 2.452964 3.236110 5.037971
2026-03-01 1.261225 1.426006 1.636280 1.940240 2.404526 3.181060 4.986815
2026-03-08 1.243855 1.408950 1.620611 1.928607 2.403930 3.213014 5.171002
2026-03-15 1.224969 1.389489 1.601165 1.910745 2.392323 3.223405 5.300669
2026-03-22 1.220404 1.388639 1.606832 1.929632 2.441025 3.352526 5.820605
2026-03-29 1.219338 1.392289 1.618628 1.957894 2.506897 3.524136 6.583528
2026-04-05 1.206991 1.380635 1.608926 1.953427 2.517102 3.583481 6.992497
2026-04-12 1.197862 1.373060 1.604643 1.956925 2.541067 3.674844 7.603071